Dazed and Confused

So, I was invited to the Near North by a friend. He is the Fund admin of the group I am working for and definitely an important person to have drinks with. A mutual friend who owns an IT company, is worth millions and has definite influence on the direction of the fund alse joined us. He is trying to relocate his firm to Bermuda.

So we got together in Old Town in the PM. And from there, I walked all the way up to Diversey & Halsted, better than 2 miles. And I had some fresh Alaskan King Crab at the Half Shell...a place I've patronized since college. The price of crab legs has gone up from $10 to $35..... But the atmosphere has not changed. Certainly the surrounding bad 'Hood is gone.... but the restaurant has not. It has been in business since 1968 and is located in the basement of a greystone.

Years ago we headed north for drinks in the Loop after the market. Everything has changed...but also nothing. We'd start drinking at the exchanges, head to Rush St., then Old Town and finally Lincoln Ave. Durkins was sometimes the last stop on the beer run....and the Ravenswood eL stops at Diversey.

Thorndale
According to Officer Derrick McClinton, a Thorndale patrol officer, muggings and robberies are the majority of crimes that occur in this location. The Dominicks food store is a primary location for individuals to become victims of crime because perpetrators assume that people have money prior to entering the store. Furthermore, due to several dark alleys and corridors, offenders have many opportunities for escape in this area.

So it seems that every day around these parts turns out to be an "adventure". I want to document here what it means to pay a boatload of money to "pioneer" in a what was once a crime bastion.
That is, to pay some higher fraction of a million to live down the street from crime and the lack of punishment. So walking down the street, if you make it without a racial incident, can also make you a witness to stuff that might take you to court...as a witness.

I decided to walk to the end of my block to pick up some spicy Mongolian beef. I enjoy this particular restaurant because, as I studied the Mandarin Chinese language as an undergrad, the owners are good enough to let me indulge myself in speaking some Mandarin with them. At least I try...My Chinese characters are a little rusty, but a life's quest is to spend time in China.

Next to the eL stop is Castle Liquors, a fairly popular African owned internet cafe and lots of corners and alleys for gang members and street people to hang in. Then there is the Laundromat, the deli, the cleaners, the corner coffee store, the corner restaurant, etc. The Chinese place is mostly a carry-out, and it has a little parking lot that it shares with the video store and the Laundromat.

So the guy in front of me seemed like he might have been a student. He ordered some sesame chicken and was promptly served. He turned around to leave the store, but a HUGE Range Rover had double parked and had him blocked in. Apparently the owner had hone across the street to the Liquor store.

So the guy waited. And he waited and waited. But then, a second SUV showed up and blocked in the first car, further clogging the parking lot. A hefty professional looking black woman went to the counter of the Chinese restaurant to pick up some food. Now the blocked in guy was getting really pissed.

After 10 minutes or so of being blocked in, the second woman pulled out. And finally the first woman showed up...And "words were exchanged". The first "woman" was a very affected black transvestite....with finger nails that looked to be four inches long. She/he screamed and yelled for a time and reparked his/her Rover diagonally so that even more people could not leave the small parking lot. Apparently the goal was really to draw attention.... A riot could have ensued.

As I was on foot...and anticipated the cops showing up, I left the queen with his/her (likely) unpaid-for Rover...to argue over BS...and wondered why anyone would drive to a corner mini-mall around here....

So walk down most neighborhood streets these days. You see condos on previously undesireable streets, all over the place. You see condo conversions going on in former crack houses, former whore houses are now priced better than 1/2 mill, and 20% price appreciation happen in less than 3 months. Small working class frame houses on 25 ft. lots go for > 1 mill.

Can the yield curve maintain a "safe" shape for the economy (i.e., can it not invert?) given current trends?

Well, it must be remembered that a lot of the speculative stuff is happenening in "blue state" regional markets. While the east coast and west coast seem to be overheating, the Chicago market
is not accelerating too far beyond equality of ownership with rental income. That is, rental properties pay owners in yields enough in property appreciation, after expense. (BTW, Illinois was a Blue State) That is, rents are keeping pace for those who own leased property.

While we might well experience a real estate "crash" in localized markets, I don't believe this really threatens the general (albeit tepid) recovery. And the historical precedent for this was the California real estate crash of the 1980s. Most areas were not affected and certainly the yield curve was not. Lincoln Park might well sink, but not the "gentrifying fringes"...which are cheap and have poistive "gamma".

It was an absolutely perfect spring Sunday and it was my son's 7th B day party. We had a "Pad Thai" party with wine and cheese on our deck for family members and the kids played in the yard. My son had a few kids over from his school.

I had gotten a call from a former GL surfer who moved back to the east coast. He had come in for the weekend and went to the "Subway Series"...the Cubs versus Sox game...that had been sold out nearly forever. So we arranged to get together after the game at our former Lakeview hangout off of west Belmont, Cody's. Ben and I often had gone surfing and then hit Cody's for a few when he lived in Chicago.

After the end of the party I hopped on the southbound Howard Line (Red) to get to the Belmont station, my transfer point. Each el car has a "booth" for a motorman, as any el car can be the first. When in the middle of the train, the booths are used for passenger seating. I like to sit in these booths because it lends an element of privacy.

So, since the game had ended, I anticipated the hoards of people boarding the train at Addison. I was getting off at the next stop, Belmont, anyway. So immediately this black kid with Rasta hair and long black basketball shorts sat next to me in the small booth. The train car filled almost immediately. Behind me, someone stood outside the seat where I was.

So the kid pulls out the first...a roll of $20s and $100s bills, big enough to choke a dinosaur.
He was busy counting. The "lookout" stood glaring at me and anyone who would dare notice. Then the kid pulled out his second (!) roll of bills. The kid probably had $10k in cash on him.

Not wanting to be "involved" or even nearby, I excused myself and pushed my way towards the train door, waiting for the next stop. Clearly, unless this kid was a ticket scalper, he was into drugs or something illegal.

I did my civic duty and upon stepping onto the Belmont platform, I left 911 with a full description and the train car number, etc. I hope this motley crew was met with a visit by the "men in Blue" by the next stop at Fullerton to fully investigate the situation.

So I transferred to the westbound Ravenswood and got off at the Paulina station. The neighborhood USED to be horrible. My dad used to lament the departing of the old Germans...and the "taking over" by Appalachian Whites, gangs and (horrors!) minorities. The Wiebolts closed, the old German restaurants went away and junk stores replaced the once thriving retail areas. Then the riots on the south and west sides made it "feel" like the neighborhood was nver coming back. Gang grafitti and broken windows were a pervasive sight.

Now the area is "hot hot hot". Mercedes convertibles line the streets and former immigrant frame houses that might have had five or six resident families are now being torn down...or converted to "fashionable" places with granite kitchen counter tops, etc. It is now "Wrigleyville West" or "Lincoln Park North", take your pick. Starbucks are all over the place.

So I returned to our old haunt, Cody's which is unchanged from pervious years. It is also one of the few remaining original Victorian structures around. The bar was filled with suburban originated yuppies who had just left the ball game. Some were smoking cigars and sipping wine. So our group, the "friends of Ben"...were now the interlopers. We drank there before these cleansed "invaders" invaded, roamed those streets when the 'hood was "bad" saw the flashed gang signs and heard the screams and gunshots. (when I was in HS). West Lakeview is now like Lincokn Park--full of "Pixies" and Yuppies.

I stopped for some Chinese on the way home. The perfectly lit restaurant was across from the corner Starbucks and occupied the former storefront of an excellent German bakery. I ordered some Kung Pao chicken. I like this dish because it is usually prepared with enough spice to make a person sweat. Despte the Mandarin Chinese conversation going on in the kitchen, the cooks had prepared the dish....like the 'hood has become...utterly BLAND and BORING. Like hearing about "Fusion Food" in the suburbs or Omaha or Memphis....(is real ethnic food possible in a boring places and in cities without substance??)

Yesterday I lamented that we had a big gang fight down the street. But do I "really" want the sort of gentrification and cleansing and homogenizing that a bunch of yuppies and pixies would bring to Edgewater ? Nope. maybe a little crime sf good for a 'hood after all. The two 2 flats next to me are going to be town down...so we could sell out our house and get quite a price. Will I?? Not if I can help it.