Saturday, May 21, 2005

What the F** ???? Should anyone have to live with gangs?



So, a very upset store owner down the street told me about what went down at the corner on Wednesday at 4PM. Apparently somebody was beaten to a pulp by a gang. Why this occured is still not clear.

What is clear is that the cultpits came from Senn HS. And most of the kids do NOT come from the neighborhood. And it was all gang related. So some guy got his face smashed in at 4PM, in broad daylight. I do NOT live at 43rd and Root. Why do I feel that way ? Whay do ghetto gang bangers go to school HERE ?

What is upsetting is that the street upon which this occured is a border of police districts. And
several people called 911. It took 1/2 hour for the police to respond to a melee of 20+ people involved watching somebody's face getting smashed in. And the initial police response was 2 female (!) officers to break up a mob.

So several local merchants are quite freaked out... and so am I. I don't really give two shits about being politically correct. Besides the fact that Senn HS is a holding cell for future prisoners, for the most part, why subject my family to this ?

If this police controlled things, I would not care that I live 1/2 mile from a de facto reform school. PRIVATIZE PUBLIC SCHOOLS.

Friday, May 20, 2005

Europe vs. American Bond Yields: Why the disparity ?



Since the beginning of the year, European bond yields have plunged relative to their US counterparts. This breaks a correlation that goes back many years, as previously the yields for the most part tracked each other.

The European bonds are far more attractive than US bonds, primarily due to the current trends.
Now the disparity is as much as 30 basis points, the widest the spread has veen in a long time.
Primarily, the continuity of the Fed policy to ratchet up yields benefits the US dollar, and the market really reslected that today.

As mentioned in the article I linked to, investors will have to be very creative in bond investing.

Thursday, May 19, 2005

The Forex Volatility Project



Given the recent repricing of oil given Chinese and Indian demand, the US dollar has been in quite a volatile period. And given this, it is time to look for short term trends in these markets.

As a consultant to a large trading fund, I observe and research these volatile relationships. I have several parameters that I work under. Monies are allocated to models that show sufficient risk and reward parameters over time, by forward and back-testing. I earn money on an hourly basis by doing this research. And I earn money by sharing profits it the trades that I construct. It is a good gig.

The currency trading vehicle of choice these days is the Euro. And the EUR/USD has been moving in tremendous swings. The most liquid trading vehicle these days for such is the cash currencies, no longer the futures.

Now we have several parameters that I adhere to. First my systems are automated. That is, a computer can enter trades 24/7. Secondly, as much as possible we keep these trades to a short term. We are able to keep our commission overhead to three pips.

Optimizing the relationships, for me involves measuring the volume at various times of the day. Trade entry and exit during periods of illiquidity gets a trade whip-sawed.
Secondly, measuring the volatility is important and one needs to do this by viewing the price data as a time series.
And in measuring this, keeping tabs of option implied volatility of the most liquid strikes is critical. That is, the options market measures a threshold. If the volatility is not at a critical level, the market is not adequately volatile to justify a trade.

It is also important to consider how to enter and exit trades by not "moving" the market. This is why liquidity is so critical. There are times that a USD$1 million buy order will move the market, at other times it won't.

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