Monday, May 09, 2005
An Energy Cold War??
China and India, given current trends, are going to need vast amounts of crude in the future. It is also the case that the USA is FAR more efficient than it was even 20 years ago. Yet because of demographics, we are and will be competing for this vast demand for oil from the developing world.
Who has oil? Among them, Azerbaijan, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, Russia, and (believe it or not) the USA. Of course OPEC has the preponderance of the oil. But it is increasingly looking like the once vast Saudi reserves are not quite as vast as they once were.
So (unfortunately) watch for the reconstruction of portions of the Soviet empire...To the south. Azerbaijan is a likely target as well as a few of the former (but now "independent") provinces. Next, watch for a major cooling of relations between India and China..They are competing for the same resource.
Finally, watch for an opening of the arctic reserves and virtually any other place within our territories that might contain oil. And oil could indeed exceed $80/barrel.
God forbid it...But war usually happens because of stuff like this.
